President Museveni (C) and Vice President Edward Ssekandi (3rdL) join Kabaka Mutebi during his 20th coronation anniversary at Lubiri palace in August. Photo by Faiswal Kasirye
Kampala- Even in the face of tempting policies, political analysts acknowledge that due to poor voter education, allegations of vote rigging and high illiteracy levels, campaigns and elections in Uganda are not normally focused on one’s agenda for the nation. Instead, they are run on trivial matters, empty and unrealistic promises such as a car assembly plant in Teso sub-region.
Analysts think that campaign manifestos are not entirely the basis for the many illiterate and poor voters to make decisions because in the face of poverty, poor health facilities and unemployment, these voters are always swayed by peripheral issues and the fear of the unknown.
According to Mr Nicholas Opio, a political and legal analyst, the issues that might affect manifestos drafting and not the voting patterns in 2016 will certainly be the social services - roads, schools, hospitals and energy.
He says a lot of rubber rousing will also be made about the youth because more than ever before, the demographics of the voting population are drifting towards young voters.
“If they can be enticed to go to the ballot, they will change the course of the election,” Mr Opio says, adding that on regional issues, the oil-rich areas will most definitely make the case for oil revenue sharing and attendant vagaries that come with the industry such as displacement and environmental degradation.
There is still the question of accountability, reconciliation and reintegration in the country. These will be key messages, but perhaps not more important is the question of land resources and reparations of war victims in Kasese, northern and eastern parts, among other areas.
The eastern and Buganda question will re-emerge with an undertone of having at least a Muganda or easterner for President coupled with religious and cultural undertones particularly the Catholic and Pentecostal faiths. Although these will come up, they are unlikely to affect the elections.
What might be more central and attract attention is the role of the armed forces, especially police and the army in elections and partisan politics.
According to the director of Anti-Corruption Coalition Uganda, Ms Cissy Kagaba, security will only be used as means of intimidation and insecurity during the campaigns. She says in previous elections, violence has been meted out on the public and some opposition candidates.
“In areas that have been affected by insecurity, we are likely to see some presidential candidates use that as a precursor for garnering support,” she says.
There has been a lot of secrecy and corruption in the oil sector hence heighted suspicion among the members of the public, something that the opposition and independents could ride on and remind voters that the government has failed to fight graft.
President Museveni will try to use the Ebyaffe agreement to woe voters in Buganda but Ms Kagaba says although the MoU with the kingdom looks like bad news to the opposition, winning votes in the region, will depend on whether the head of state holds on to the deal.
Mr Crispy Kaheru, the coordinator of the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda, says the campaign platforms of the 2016 candidates must be a reflection of the issues that are affecting citizens by respective demographics, including gender, age, employment status, mobility, disabilities and location.
Unlike in previous elections, Mr Kaheru says: “candidates should be able to invest in thorough research on specific issues that affect the citizenry and then articulate them.”
For instance, during the 2011 elections, Mr Kaheru says presidential candidates did little research in terms of the core issues that affect Ugandans but fortunately, civil society generated a scientific record of the aspirations and demands of citizens by region and interest group.
Key demands related to the need to decisively deal with the rampant corruption, poverty, declining fortunes of agriculture, environmental degradation, low levels of civic consciousness, among others.
Mr Kaheru says the concerns of the public have not shifted significantly because not many successful candidates embraced the issues in the Citizen Manifesto.
“While from the economic lenses we see issues of unemployment, corruption, low investment gaining greater ground, there are growing concerns about the continuously weakening political and state institutions,” he says.
“The 2016 election should be about nothing less than calls for complete political reforms,” the rights activist adds.
According to Mr Kaheru, many people have argued that if the political superstructure was working right, the country would not be in this economic and social state.
President Museveni and his supporters insist the country has achieved the minimum economic recovery the government set out to achieve in 1986.
Referring to the Bible, Information minister Rose Namayanja says: “In Ecclesiastes, there is time for everything. In leadership, there is time for politics and time to deliver and fulfill our manifesto.”
Action time
“To us, politicking was until February 2011. All we are doing now is to ensure service delivery and development for the entire country which is the mandate the people of Uganda gave us,” she adds.
On unemployment, the minister says critics should know that as a result of NRM’s policy to liberalise the education sector, there are now more graduates than ever before in the country’s history.
“That is why a lot of emphasis is now put on developing infrastructure that has a bearing on boosting investments like energy and roads which will boost employment,” Ms Namayanja says.
However, to the opposition leaders, the promises in previous disputed elections that put President Museveni in office were abandoned to the annals of history.
Mr Museveni used Kabaka Mutebi’s 20th coronation anniversary to remind Ugandans the days of “terrible shortages for essential goods such as sugar, soap, salt, paraffin, beverages”.
The President said Uganda’s GDP is now $22b(Shs54 trillion) using exchange rate method compared to $1.55b(Shs3 triilion) in 1986.
By using the purchasing power parity method, the GDP is now $51.3 billion (Shs127t), adding that the “big growth” is obvious to those whose eyes are not jaundiced by prejudice and envy.
The President was recently on a two-month tour of Luweero and Rwenzori region and met veterans to promote efforts aimed at poverty eradication. His household anti-poverty trips in the countryside fated as a “2016 campaigns gimmick” covered Luweero, Kyankwanzi, Kiboga, Mukono, Masaka and Nakasongola districts and some areas in the north, among others.
According to political analysts, for fear that Buganda properties had pitted the kingdom against his leadership, President Museveni signed a landmark Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Kabaka Mutebi that ended a long-standing battle over the properties which were hijacked by Milton Obote government during what became the 1966 crisis.
The return of Ebyaffe according to political analysts confirms one thing: That the 2016 elections will focus on regionalisation in an attempt to address the issues of the day in an attempt to compartmentalise the country and campaign in an issue-specific format depending on where one is speaking.
However, Buganda has been unrelenting in its quest for a federo status and despite the return of their property, this demand remains high on table.
As 2016 slants, it is not clear whether the President will eventually heed to the federo demands as a campaign tool at a time when the opposition is promising to succeed where the ruling party has failed.
Explaining the delay, the President’s spokesperson, Mr Tamale Mirundi, said: “The issue was not that the President never wanted to give them back. [Ebyaffe] They should be returned to their rightful owners .We have two institutions in Buganda which were abolished at the same time. The Kabaka institution which has its property and the Baganda have public land that is the 9000sq miles,” Mr Mirundi says.
“What we have today is that all these properties have gone back to Mengo. The battle now is whether all will be under Mengo or the 9,000 public land goes back to Baganda an issue that the president has left Mengo to decide.”
While poverty, land wrangles and unemployment remain endemic in various parts of the country, the Opposition Leader in Parliament, Mr Nandala Mafabi, says statistics from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics indicate that the problem is worse in northern and eastern parts of the country.
North woes
Northern region has suffered two decades of civil strife as a result of the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel activities, still has the highest number of poor people at 46.2 per cent, which is higher than the national average of about 30 per cent.
Eastern Uganda is ranked second with 24.2 per cent of the people living in absolute poverty after a decline from 35.9 per cent in 2005/2006.
In the west, poverty stands at 18.2 per cent down from 20.5 per cent. At a time when the country is set to start pumping up to 200,000 barrels per day onto the world oil market, this is likely to be a campaign issue, especially in Bunyoro sub-region.
Healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure and the quality of education among other issues are likely to dominate the presidential campaigns countrywide come 2016.
“The NRM has failed. We are asking Ugandans to give us a chance in 2016,” Mr Mafabi says, adding: “We are going to table electoral reforms in Parliament before we go to the polls. It is not true that the Opposition is sleeping.” He added: “We want to see an independent Electoral Commission and NRM must stop using taxpayers’ money and security to intimidate our people in elections. In 2011 elections, they smuggled Shs10b through Saccos and this money was used to buy voters.”
“But the good thing is that as we approach 2016, Ugandans are not sleeping, they feel the poverty and unemployment because the corruption in Museveni’s government.”
The issue of disarmament and peace process in the volatile Karamoja where the army is facing accusations of human rights violations, will also influence the voters.
Abuse of public funds meant for the reconstruction efforts in the region is expected to form the highlights of the campaigns focusing on the theft of foreign aid in the Premier’s office.
Parties 2011 manifesto
DP
Improved and equal opportunities for education for all Ugandans.
Upgrade of services country wide, including improved teacher salary and benefits.
Increased opportunities for employment in all sectors.
Improve economic sustainability, including investing in infrastructure to support a global network of goods and production.
FDC
Fighting corruption, poverty.
Equitable distribution of resources,
Job creation and reforming the education sector,
Investing in agriculture and health sector.
Inter-party cooperation(IPC) promised to implement federalism as the best way to govern Uganda.
IPC also promised to trim the government in order to cut public expenditure.
NRM
Prosperity for all
Adding value to agricultural produce,
Industrialization,
Expansion in the education and health sectors
Expanding the provision of clean and safe water to urban areas, trading centers and villages.
Developing the petroleum resource
Realisation of the political federation of East Africa.
Ensuring environmental management
UPC
Create two million jobs in four years
Reconstructing and modernising of schools, hospitals and health care centres.
The budget to agriculture will be increased to 15 per cent
Revive cooperatives.
Investing in health sector by 15 percent.
Rehabilitate the 22 hospitals and the 13 regional referral hospitals built by the former UPC governments
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